Q2 2019 Portfolio Review

The second quarter ended and this time I wanted to be quicker with my portfolio review.

The market dropped in May but quickly recovered in June. Other than that there was no real excitement regarding the markets/portfolio. On a personal note, we were again on a two week surf trip to northern Spain. We also visited the wedding of my sister and did a catamaran sailing trip on Lago di Como last weekend. Very exciting, but very bad for my saving rate. But I still won’t trade these experiences for more available money.

Capital Contribution

My capital contribution this quarter was $0. I could have added a little bit, but I need more visibility for the coming tax payment. I still haven’t finished my tax declaration for 2018. Hopefully I can compensate the missing contributions in the coming quarters, but for now it seems very unlikely and I think I’ll miss my annual contribution target.

Portfolio Changes

These values come straight from my broker and differ a little bit of my own calculations, mostly because of including fees and some unpublished options plays, which I list separately for myself.

Stock Transactions

  • I sold my remaining shares of Sabra Health Care REIT because I don’t see a positive outlook of their FFO numbers for the future. In fact it continues to fall as seen in Q1 report (FFO 48 cents, down from 63 cents). The dividend coverage is getting smaller and smaller. I don’t need to wait to see the outcome. This is a similar reasoning as with my OHI sell last year.
  • I sold my Ensco position with a big loss after they decided to cancel the remaining (symbolic) dividend. The offshore business is still in recovery mode, but it’s unclear, at the moment, how long the turnaround will take and who will survive and in which form (restructuring, etc.). The problem remains: most ships are under contract at the moment and new contracts only get very low day rates. Too low to be sustainable. You have to keep in mind, these companies have an enormous amount of debt. And even if the day rates will see a drastic upside movement, there are simply not enough ships (warm stacked or idle) available to take the opportunity. The situation will change slowly, I’m sure of it, but I’m not using my dividend portfolio to trade (or continue to hope any further) on a hypothesis.
  • Last but not least I doubled my Abbvie position and bought 25 ABBV shares after they announced the Allergan acquisition and the share price dropped 15% on a single day. To be honest I thought it will drop further and I can continue to add. But I’m happy that I took the opportunity. I don’t understand the initial negative reactions to the acquisition. The cost of debt is far lower than the added cash flow which will further improve the “Humira dividend risk”. This is what I wanted Gilead to do. Aggressive cash flow acquisitions instead on betting on more risky R&D buys. That’s why I decreased my Gilead share count last year.

Dividend Income

I’ve received $636.97 in dividend payments in the second quarter. This is an 4.56% increase over last year Q2.

Outlook for Q3 2019

Because of my SBRA sell (a very high yield REIT), my annual dividend income, compared to Q1, decreased even more. Even after buying more ABBV shares which were also yielding a high 6.5% at the time of purchase, I couldn’t compensate the loss. All REITs are overvalued at the moment, so I don’t think I find an adequate replacement. Maybe the outlook of falling rates will turn this tide to my advantage. But as always I’m looking for opportunities.

Looking at my 2019 goals, I’m lagging behind all my targets. Let’s see how this will plays out in the end. 6 more months to go!

Q1 2019 Portfolio Review

This report was saved as a draft shortly after Q1 ended and I’ve never found the time to finish it. Q2 will end soon and I think it’s finally time to release the review.

The performance in the first three months of the year of my portfolio and the market was amazing. But except for the surprising year to date market and portfolio performance there isn’t anything exciting to report. Just “business as usual”.

Capital Contribution

Capital Contribution

I’ve added nearly $3500 to my portfolio. This slightly exceeded my monthly target for this year by $200. Hopefully I’ll keep this level of contribution for the coming quarter.

Portfolio Changes

These values come straight from my broker and differ a little bit of my own calculations, mostly because of including fees and some unpublished options plays, which I list separately for myself.

Stock Transactions

  • My first purchase for the year was Altria (MO): I just couldn’t withstand the rock bottom price near $44
  • I sold my Uniti (UNIT) position in February due to the lost court case of their biggest customer Windstream. I gambled on this one and lost a small amount after including the received dividends. Luckily this was only a small position. But this was my highest yield on cost which in turn will decrease my annual dividends by a huge amount of $240.
  • My last purchase for this quarter was CVS which increased my share count to 70
  • I’m still trying to close out the used margin from my buying spree of last December. That’s why the inflow of capital is higher than the sum of my purchases.

Dividend Income

I’ve received $540.94 in Q1, which is an increase of 52% over last year Q1. The high increase is easily explained: I didn’t received any dividends in January 2018.

Outlook for Q2 2019

As I’m continuing to reduce my used margin in Q2, I don’t think I’ll make any purchase in Q2. In case of any available funds, stocks like ABBV and QCOM are looking attractive from a valuation point of view.

Goal Review and 2019 Update

It’s time to update the goals for 2019! But before I want to make a quick review of the 2018 goals :

  • I’ll buy an apartment which will take all my cash reserves (to achieve better terms of financing)

Goal achieved, I’ve bought the property in February and we’ve moved into it in August. And yes, nearly all of my cash went into financing.

  • We’ve got a new family member! I will take two months off and we’ll surf & travel through Europe with Baby Divrider. This means: no new contribution this year.

What an amazing experience. This is recommended to all young families which can afford the time and money doing such a thing. An unforgettable experience. And I even managed to make a contribution in November and December (total 3000€)

  • Maintain projected annual dividend income of $2,608

Achieved and I even increased the forward dividend income by nearly $450 to $3,150.90. But this comes with a caveat. I sold some of my speculation stocks and I’ve used margin on the big market drop end of December. In other words I’ve already used some future buying funds and this will decrease my ability to increase my portfolio in 2019.

  • Use broker cash reserve or sell stocks from overweighting sectors in broker account to diversify into new sectors

Achieved! I sold some GILD and increased my sector diversity substantially. I’ve added stocks in Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials and Technology.

So let’s see look at the new year:

Goals 2019

Comparing to the exciting last year, this year will be more “business as usual”. The only exception is the decreased saving rate due to our baby and our new apartment. Including paying off the margin balance, the net investment rate will be quite low this year. I don’t know if there will be some secondary income this year.

  • Contribute average $1,100 per month
  • Increase projected annual dividend income to $3,639 (+15%)
  • Increase expected yearly dividend growth rate from 4.57% to 5.5%
  • Improve portfolio tracking and include ratings, payout ratio, debt and EPS/dividend growth

The targeted dividend income includes organic dividend growth (estimated 4,57%) and new investments at a weighted dividend yield of 4%.

I started tracking the expected yearly dividend growth rate for my portfolio and it’s quite low at the moment. I want to improve my rate by buying faster growing companies and maybe by selling some low growth and low yielding stocks.

Last but not least, I want to improve my portfolio tracking to get a better overview of the current “health status”.

Let’s see how this will work out at the end of the year 🙂

Annual Review 2018

The year ended and it’s time to look back and review 2018. First of all it was a remarkable year for me, because we enjoyed our first year with Baby DivRider! This included a two month parental leave for me and 12 months for Mrs. DivRider. We enjoyed the time surfing and travelling along the atlantic coast (picture above) in that time, which was an awesome experience. This also meant a reduction of earnings for both of us. On the other side, if you’re a resident of Germany you’re entitled to receive quite a big financial support from Germany in that time.

We also bought a nice apartment with a beautiful view of the Rhine Valley. This used up all my cash reserves from 2017. But we’ve managed to get a 15 year 2% fixed rate mortgage, despite financing nearly 100% of the property costs, which is really good. Now we’ll pay only a little bit more than renting before. Considering more than doubling the living space and a much higher living quality and a relative high repayment rate, the only regret is not doing this earlier.

With all the drained cash flow and associated buying costs, I was only able to put another $3450 to work. But selling some shares of my speculative investments and some of my dividend portfolio increased my dry powder which lead to multiple buys over the year which also increased my forward dividend income.

I’ve prepared some tables and graphs with all important informations:

Capital Contribution

My initial plan for 2018 was to increase my capital contributions quite a lot, but after using all cash for buying our real estate there was nearly nothing left. Going forward, I’ll try to contribute $1000+ every month for 2019. It would be nice to add more, but there are quite some home improvements I want to realize this year.

Portfolio Changes

These values come straight from my broker and differ a little bit of my own calculations, mostly because of including the fees and some unpublished options plays, which I list separately for myself.

Stock Transactions

As you can see, I went a little bit crazy at the end of the year. I even used a little bit of my margin (interest at 3.5%) to take advantage of the biggest sale in a long time. If I want to reduce the margin, I could further liquidate my speculative portfolio.

Sells

I sold CELG because I wanted to further clean up the portfolio. I’m still convinced of the future projects, maybe I’ll buy BMY to get some exposure to CELG again (and to receive dividends this time).

I also sold OHI because I wanted to reduce the exposure to skilled nursing facilities (I also hold SBRA). Shortly after my sell the situation at OHI brightened up (tenant issues seemingly resolved) and SBRA got hit by the same issues. I still think SBRA is the better choice because of the better dividend payout ratio.

I got one assignment of a SBRA put option from 2017, which led to a purchase of 100 shares in April which I sold shortly after for a small profit. I further decreased my exposure in November after reading the Q3 report and the newly published tenant issues.

I sold SKT because I’m not convinced anymore that my portfolio needs exposure to outlet centers.

I reduced my exposure to GILD, because I don’t see the near term growth kicker and I wanted to free up some cash to purchase other more visible opportunities.

Buys

ABBV, BATS (BTI), BLK, CVS, FDX, GNTX, ITW, MO, NVDA, PM, T, TROW, V, VER

I tried to balance between sectors, high and low yielding stocks and I used to grab the opportunities when prices were attractive. Please ask, if you’re interested in the reasoning for a specific stock.

Dividend Income

I’ve received $2289 in dividend income in 2018! That’s nearly $191 a month. Note that this tracked income got already deducted by the withholding tax (mostly 15%). As I’ve to pay 26.38% tax in total on my dividend income, but reduced by some tax exemption and the already paid withholding tax, this isn’t the final net value.

The year over year comparison of my dividend income is misleading as I’ve adjusted the portfolio quite a lot over the years which resulted in a constant decrease in portfolio dividend yield. Going forward, I think this will be more “pointing upward”. But this is the result of my personal journey into the world of dividend growth investing until now and there is no denying in the (sometimes costly) things I’ve learned. I’m still relatively young and my journey will continue decades, so I forgive myself for my early mistakes.

Looking at 2019, I hope the volatility continues and gives us more buying opportunities like we saw in december. The only problem: my shopping list is quite long and my cash reserve is quite low. But I think that’s always the case in a downturn stock scenario. The key is to keep adding when valuation is attractive and to identify the highest quality for the lowest price. I also hope to give a portfolio review on a quarter-by-quarter basis for this year.

Also a big thanks to “Dividend Growth Machine” at Seeking Alpha which inspired me to do my review this way.

Portfolio Update January 2018

It’s time for another update, since my last portfolio update was October 2017.

Purchases

Company Stock Units Price Date Cost
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers SKT 100 $22.81 2017-10-27 $2281.00
Vereit VER 200 $7.29 2018-01-18 $1458.00

 

Sells

none
 

Options

Stock Open Date Exp Date Type Strike Price Premium Fees
UNIT 2017-11-02 2018-04-20 Put $20.00 $190.00 $3.50

 

There aren’t too many updates, but I took some opportunities with the increased pressure in the REIT sector and the especially the retail REITs last year. I will increase my exposure in this segment if the price pressure continues to give us discounts due to the always recurring rate fears.

Guidance 2018

I’m going to buy a nice apartment for myself which will heavily influence my ability to invest this year. I will adjust my new goals accordingly. Nearly all my cash will be used to get a good mortgage at exactly 2% interest rate with a fixed mortgage term over 15 years and the possibility of 5% down payments per year. I think these are great conditions considering my low equity ratio under 10%. I just had to take the opportunity because it’s more expensive to rent. And if everything goes well this year, I don’t have to liquidate anything in my portfolio.
But nevertheless, I’m very interested to see what this year will bring for me. Maybe I can fetch some side jobs and get my emergency funds back to a convenient level and maybe even add some positions in my portfolio. But that would be extremely ambitious as I’m also planning to make an unpaid two month summer vacation this year, but we’ll see.